Gevo Management Dumps Stock, 80% Of Holdings On Average (NASDAQ:GEVO) (2022)

I've owned Gevo (NASDAQ:GEVO) for just under three years now and my ownership position in the company admittedly is now more akin to owning a lotto ticket than an investment. I realize GEVO is likely going to zero and that I'll recoup nothing from my once large position. In fact, outside of selling its alcohol-to-jet fuel line and maybe its marine fuel line I don't think anybody will see anything of a return from GEVO. The company is largely worthless.

When it's all said and done, GEVO will, for a fact, be my worst investment. That's saying something for a guy who takes venture-level investments in microcaps fairly regularly. I've actually had plays go to zero before on both the private and public side - that's what happens when you invest in stressed scenarios and binary opportunities. Sometimes they go to zero. But I've never witnessed a story make its way to the garbage bin in the spectacular and continuously impressive way that GEVO has progressed in that direction. GEVO has shown me parts of the disgusting microcap underbelly that I never knew existed, and for that I'm thankful. A lesson learned is a lesson to be taken through life. GEVO has taught me plenty.

Why do I continue to hold the position? Well I'm down so big already that frankly I've already accounted for the loss. You see I do this thing where I don't invest money I can't lose - it's helpful in making business decisions and not emotional ones. Also, I enjoy the story at GEVO.

The story actually got a lot better last Friday, June 10th, 2015. Late Friday, when the best of microcap stories come public via SEC filings, GEVO filed a set of Form 4s for its management team. Form 4 filings disclose insider transactions if you're unfamiliar.

GEVO's filings showed that management dumped shares in massive size.

GEVO's official comment, from its investor relations desk, is that (summarized) these sales were in connection with a 2014 executive compensation plan and that the shares were only recently awarded. That these shares were specifically given as compensation instead of cash in an effort to conserve cash.

Of course, GEVO's primary concern these days is cash conservation as the company has been a consistent and superb failure since a mid-2012 sanitation disaster at its Luverne Minnesota plant halted production and thrust the company into its slow circle. This lack of commercial production along with seemingly endless CAPEX necessary to "learn" and to "optimize" its still not at nameplate capacity "isobutanol" plant is what has driven the toxic balance sheet's ever decreasing health and long-term viability collapse.

Still, management rewarded itself. Regardless of three years of zero progress but millions dumped into a negative outcome? Regardless of what I believe is a total failure to have anything even resembling a strategy dating back three full years? I'm not sure management patting itself on the back with shares and then proceeding to immediately dump these shares on the market is what I would have expected, all things considered.

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But isn't this to be expected?

Management has consistently shown to be unaccountable, with zero respect for the shareholder, as evidenced by their leaving the shareholders for multiple calendar quarters at a time without anything of an update (all the while the share price continued its decent to zero), and to have zero real clue as to what's going on as evidenced by the company never being remotely close to guided metrics. Let me say this again, GEVO management dumped shares in massive size.

That's right.

GEVO management, across the board, sold shares in the largest size I've ever seen them sell shares. After putting on such a show at the last earnings reporting. After preaching two years of next quarter, next quarter, we're still learning, we're going to make the turn, we're in the last mile. After repeatedly making overt attempts to pump the stock with meaningless press releases. After diluting existing shareholders multiple hundred percentage points in efforts to raise more and more money (in which GEVO management has consistently sold shares into prior - just never in this size). After running a literal science experiment with shareholder money footing the bill as it became evident that management had no idea what it was doing.

After all that and more, GEVO management has almost zero skin in the game now. To the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars, and keep in mind this was just the late-Friday sale, GEVO management has near-zero alignment with shareholders.

See for yourself.

CEO Patrick Gruber - CEO:

Gruber cashed out for himself $225,968.06. Gruber dumped 74.4% of his stock in one transaction. Although his filing claims that this was done for tax offset reasons - it clearly wasn't. Actually, GEVO investor relations claims this was a compensation offset selling? Oh, I guess maybe it was both. Even somebody new to sifting through these filings would see with a simple Form 4 search that Gruber was clearly dumping his ownership. These sales are much, much greater in size than his typical handful of shares sold as per scheduled sales. Gruber knows something we all don't…yet. Good for you Pat.

Mike Willis - CFO:

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Willis cashed out for himself $114,502.29. Willis dumped 73.7% of his stock in one transaction. Tax selling Mike? I'll believe Mike Willis in the next lifetime after in this one being repeatedly told by him that the company would be able to finance its ongoing failures via debt, and then weeks later seeing the company raise via equity. If you see Mike Willis on a management team at your next venture, my advice is to avoid it. Congrats to Mike though, good for him.

Brett Lund - EVP, GC, Secretary:

Lund cashed out for himself $145,797.42. Lund dumped 94.8% of his stock in one transaction. It is my opinion that something had Lund spooked. He is now just about completely detached from the company, other than collecting his shareholder paid wage that is. Mr. Lund, Sir, congrats to you.


Christopher Ryan - President, COO, CTO:

Ryan cashed out for himself $129,469.86. Ryan dumped 65.3% of his stock in one transaction. Was he not privy to the same information that had Lund selling 94.8% and had Gruber and Willis selling near 75%? Maybe not - I'm not even sure what Ryan does at GEVO as I've never heard from him, heard him or his efforts mentioned, or seen anything productive that would indicate GEVO has an actual COO or CTO. In any case, what do I know - pay this man his ~$130,000.

Greg Roda - CCO:

Roda cashed out for himself $115,287.90. Roda dumped 87.2% of his stock in one transaction. Apparently he was on the Gruber/Willis/Lund memo. Of course, he would be. Since coming on to GEVO Roda has done absolutely nothing, while cashing out shares brick by brick. In the future if you see Greg Roda on a management team immediately sell.

So there you have it folks.

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GEVO management in a late-Friday filing disclosed that they want nothing to do with this company other than to show up and collect their collective check for as long as they can. Guess what? As long as somebody is there to buy the dream of a perpetual motion machine, and people have been buying that dream for a century now, managers like Pat Gruber, Mike Willis, Brett Lund, Christopher Ryan, and Greg Roda will have jobs.

If management wants nothing to do with GEVO, should you?

I continue to recommend an avoid of GEVO.

Good luck everybody.

Editor's Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

This article was written by

Dallas Salazar is the CEO an Austin-based consulting firm that specializes in private company lifecycle management, up to and including taking companies public, and in helping consult publicly traded companies. Mr. Salazar is also a venture investor in a portfolio of energy and commodity startups, including startups extracting oil, natural gas, helium, and carbon dioxide, as well as engaged in the business of large scale carbon sequestration. Mr. Salazar has recently had large exits in Comstock Resources, Eclipse Resources, Torchlight Energy, as well as numerous privately held natural resource and commodity extraction ventures.

Disclosure: I am/we are long GEVO. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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FAQs

What is Gevo stock forecast? ›

Stock Price Forecast

The 3 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Gevo Inc have a median target of 10.00, with a high estimate of 18.00 and a low estimate of 10.00. The median estimate represents a +283.14% increase from the last price of 2.61.

How much debt is Gevo? ›

Total Assets
Jun 2022
Total Debt92.09 M
Total Liabilities110.84 M
Total Shareholder's Equity663.77 M
Book Value Per Share2.82
7 more rows

Is Gevo stock undervalued? ›

Gevo Inc retains a regular Real Value of $5.4 per share. The prevalent price of the firm is $2.14. Based on Macroaxis valuation methodology, the firm appears to be undervalued.

How much cash is Gevo? ›

Compare GEVO With Other Stocks
Gevo Annual Cash on Hand (Millions of US $)
2020$78
2019$16
2018$34
2017$12
9 more rows

Is Gevo a good stock buy? ›

1 Wall Street analysts have issued "buy," "hold," and "sell" ratings for Gevo in the last year. There are currently 1 buy rating for the stock. The consensus among Wall Street analysts is that investors should "buy" GEVO shares. View GEVO analyst ratings or view top-rated stocks.

Should I hold Gevo? ›

Gevo holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.

Is gevo a long term stock? ›

Historical index on US Stock Market : C "Should I invest in Gevo stock?" "Should I trade "GEVO" stock today?" According to our live Forecast System, Gevo Inc stock is a bad long-term (1-year) investment*.

Will gevo grow? ›

Gevo's portfolio is growing by more than 40% to the current 350 million gallons or more of SAF to supply annually to aircraft operators for a minimum period of 5 years.

Will gevo rise? ›

On average, Wall Street analysts predict that Gevo's share price could reach $11.00 by Aug 10, 2023. The average Gevo stock price prediction forecasts a potential upside of 315.09% from the current GEVO share price of $2.65. What is GEVO's Earnings Per Share (EPS) forecast for 2022-2024?

Who owns Gevo stock? ›

Top 10 Owners of Gevo Inc
StockholderStakeShares owned
The Vanguard Group, Inc.4.55%10,709,367
BlackRock Advisors (UK) Ltd.2.54%5,974,623
Sabby Management LLC2.33%5,486,831
Invesco Capital Management LLC2.18%5,117,436
6 more rows

How is book value calculated? ›

How do you calculate book value? The book value of a company is equal to its total assets minus its total liabilities. The total assets and total liabilities are on the company's balance sheet in annual and quarterly reports.

What is vgm Score? ›

We also produce the VGM Score ('V' for Value, 'G' for Growth and 'M' for Momentum), which combines the weighted average of the individual Style Scores into one score. This is perfectly suited for those who want their stocks to have the best scores across the board.

What dies gevo? ›

Gevo works with the farmers who grow the corn to reduce the carbon released through no-till and low-till farming techniques. This carbon-farming solution captures carbon and sequesters it in the soil. Gevo plans to install manure digesters on farms to capture methane that can be turned into renewable natural gas.

What is the prediction for Amazon stock? ›

Stock Price Forecast

The 45 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Amazon.com Inc have a median target of 170.00, with a high estimate of 215.00 and a low estimate of 85.00. The median estimate represents a +50.44% increase from the last price of 113.00.

Is gevo clean energy? ›

To make its energy-dense liquid hydrocarbons, Gevo uses low-carbon renewable resource-based carbohydrates as raw materials and is developing renewable electricity and renewable natural gas for use in production processes, resulting in low-carbon fuels with substantially reduced carbon intensity.

Who are gevo customers? ›

Gevo has reached sales agreements with Japan Airlines, Delta, British Airways and SAS and other airlines for its next-generation fuel.

Where is gevo located? ›

Gevo, Inc. is a renewable chemicals and advanced biofuels company headquartered in unincorporated Douglas County, Colorado in the Denver-Aurora metropolitan area.

What is the forecast for Apple stock? ›

Stock Price Forecast

The 37 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Apple Inc have a median target of 185.00, with a high estimate of 220.00 and a low estimate of 95.00. The median estimate represents a +34.06% increase from the last price of 138.00.

Is Gevo a long term stock? ›

Historical index on US Stock Market : C "Should I invest in Gevo stock?" "Should I trade "GEVO" stock today?" According to our live Forecast System, Gevo Inc stock is a bad long-term (1-year) investment*.

Will Gevo rise? ›

On average, Wall Street analysts predict that Gevo's share price could reach $11.00 by Aug 10, 2023. The average Gevo stock price prediction forecasts a potential upside of 315.09% from the current GEVO share price of $2.65. What is GEVO's Earnings Per Share (EPS) forecast for 2022-2024?

Who owns Gevo stock? ›

Top 10 Owners of Gevo Inc
StockholderStakeShares owned
The Vanguard Group, Inc.4.55%10,709,367
BlackRock Advisors (UK) Ltd.2.54%5,974,623
Sabby Management LLC2.33%5,486,831
Invesco Capital Management LLC2.18%5,117,436
6 more rows

What is the forecast for Apple stock? ›

Stock Price Forecast

The 37 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Apple Inc have a median target of 185.00, with a high estimate of 220.00 and a low estimate of 95.00. The median estimate represents a +34.06% increase from the last price of 138.00.

What is the prediction for Amazon stock? ›

Stock Price Forecast

The 45 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Amazon.com Inc have a median target of 170.00, with a high estimate of 215.00 and a low estimate of 85.00. The median estimate represents a +50.44% increase from the last price of 113.00.

How is gevo fuel made? ›

To make its energy-dense liquid hydrocarbons, Gevo uses low-carbon renewable resource-based carbohydrates as raw materials and is developing renewable electricity and renewable natural gas for use in production processes, resulting in low-carbon fuels with substantially reduced carbon intensity.

Does gevo make ethanol? ›

Gevo's ethanol meets the need for low-carbon, renewable ethanol, and we are constantly exploring new and better ways to improve upon it.

How many shares of Gevo are there? ›

Share Statistics
Avg Vol (3 month) 39.11M
Avg Vol (10 day) 37.43M
Shares Outstanding 5235.17M
Implied Shares Outstanding 6N/A
Float 8221.03M
7 more rows

What does gevo stand for? ›

Acronym. Definition. GEVO. Autonomic Computing and Grid Enabled Virtual Organizations. Copyright 1988-2018 AcronymFinder.com, All rights reserved.

Is Amazon a buy hold or sell? ›

Amazon.com has received a consensus rating of Buy. The company's average rating score is 2.87, and is based on 36 buy ratings, 1 hold rating, and 2 sell ratings.

Is Apple buy or hold? ›

Apple has received a consensus rating of Buy. The company's average rating score is 2.71, and is based on 22 buy ratings, 6 hold ratings, and 2 sell ratings.

What is Apple's target price for 2022? ›

Apple has $108 billion of free cash flow over the 12 trailing months.
...
Apple Stock Forecast 2022: Forecast for the Next 12 months.
SourceTarget
Wedbush$220
5 more rows
26 Sept 2022

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